Hit Rate
How often a player finished above a given line.
What it means
For any threshold — 24.5 points, 7.5 rebounds — the hit rate is the share of games in which the player exceeded it. Shown over the last 5, last 10 and the full season so a hot streak is visible against a longer baseline.
Small samples are shown as fractions rather than percentages on purpose: 4/5 and 80% are the same number, but the fraction makes the sample size impossible to overlook.
What to watch out for
The thresholds in the hit-rate tables on player pages are our own — the median of a player's earlier games, deliberately taken from outside the window being scored. A hit rate measured against a line drawn from the same data it scores is circular, which is why the reference window and the scored window never overlap. The prop board is different: every line there is a bookmaker's, and the hit rate is measured against that exact number. The board's edge is our projection minus that line; the minutes model behind the projection is backtested every season against what actually happened (mean error 4.9 minutes on the WNBA, 5.3 on the NBA, within a tenth of a model that sees the whole season), and the column is left blank wherever minutes cannot be projected.